How can they estimate that sony will sell 3 million units of PS3 in 2006, when Sony only are going to produce and ship 2 million of those before the years end?

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Kaiser Soze: Shipped =/= Sold

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Analysts make a business of selling themselves as experts possessing vast storehouses of collected data. I've known someone who works at one of the leading such analyst firms and he's the one who told me that most of their predictions are based on total BS.

They base their ideas on trends and other market factors - nothing everyone doesn't already have access to. You could take last year's sales and a Magic 8-Ball and do just as well.

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Lightguy: Read Kaiser's post again. I don't think you got it the first go round. Sony can't sell 3 million units if only 2 million are being shipped.

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hopefully the psp can bounce back with the fall lineup.

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Sorry guys. Have you checked the recent news? Apparently only 500.000 PS3 will be ready at launch. This is straight from the source, Ken kutaragi.

Lightguy: I dont know quite what you are hinting at

Pixelator: You dont have to say twice that those analysts base their predictions from bull droppings. Do they know what year this is at all?

James: You got my point

PSP: Zelda is coming to the DS + a great number of other big titles. But I still think that the sales numbers of PSP will rise as the games will be released. But I dont think Sony will get any marketshares back

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Look at the chart - does that look like a particularly poor showing to anyone other than DS fanboys? Me, neither. Given the 4 month headstart and big sales of the DS Lite represented in the last upswing for the DS sales, the PSP has followed a very similar trend for the period it's been out.

If I was Sony, given the dismal history of other handhelds competing against Nintendo in this market segment, I'd be ecstatic with such a competitive sales graph. Why so many people are equating PSP sales performance (except in Japan, of course) with doom & gloom is a mystery to me... Even if it winds up a second place to Nintendo, it's not anywhere near as distant a placing as say, the Gamecube vs. the PS2 (and I don't think many consider the GC an utter failure).

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I totally agree pixelator. It's what I always have said. Despite the success of the DS, PSP sales haven't dropped. So in that sense, the PSP isn't a failure at all. All analysts had just predicted it to wipe out Nintendo from the handheld as it did with the stationary. But that just didn't happen. But that's just what people thought it would do. But being second to Nintendo is not a bad place to be at all. The PSP is a success. And so is the DS. Bottom line. Who cares except for the analysts who made the wrong predictions

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>_< Dammit, that's what I get for posting early in the morning. Sorry Kaiser Soze, I read your post completely incorrectly.

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Precisely - both systems have succeeded (and failed):

* PSP has succeeded by proving to be a quite viable platform with a good assortment of comparatively highly rated games (moreso than the DS), strong initial and consistent followup sales thanks to its older market demographic appeal. It's done far better against the Nintendo handheld market hold than any other system in history, better than many CONSOLES have in recent years, in fact. It 'failed' to wipe Nintendo off the handheld map as a few pundits predicted (a tall order for any company). It also has failed to garner any one or two clear system-selling killer apps, but many games have come close, like Daxter, Burnout, Lumines, GTA, etc.

* The DS has succeeded in expanding on the GBA handheld market in a way many expected the PSP might (and probably has, to a lesser extent). It's clear the system is a smash hit in Japan and sales of the new Lite have escalated to put it past the PSP in units sold and software sales worldwide. Even the momentum of the success of the GBA doesn't account for the massive popularity of the system in Japan, though, and proved many wrong who initially discounted the relatively low power and railed on the touchscreen / dual displays as gimmicks. You can count me in there - I didn't expect the DS to do as well as it has, and although I still find the stylus control less than ideal for many games, there's no denying the popularity and handful of titles that make creative use of it, like Trauma Center. Speaking of games, after a 10-12 month dry spell initially, the DS has raked in several high profile and fast selling original and sequel games in keeping with the Nintendo's handheld style. With an almost cult following rabid for anything Mario-type character based and a strong secondary toy market (candy/capsule toys, keychains, etc.), Nintendo shows no signs of losing touch with their fanbase.

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